Mixed Messages

The housing market remains busy. Compared to the last ‘normal’ market of 2019, buyer enquiries are up 31% and mortgage approvals and sales are up by 12% and 11% respectively. However, there are half as many properties available to buy and stock levels are down 55% (Rightmove, HMRC, Bank of England). The prolonged mismatch between demand and supply continues to support prices. On average, properties are selling subject to contract in just 31 days, the quickest time ever recorded. With competition for properties remaining high, Rightmove report that asking prices have hit their fourth consecutive record high in as many months.

Over 433,000 homes in the UK changed hands in the first four months of 2022, making this the third busiest start to a year since 2007. Last year was an exceptional year due to Covid-19 and 2016 saw a surge prior to the introduction of the 3% additional homes surcharge. Except for last year, April 2022 has been the busiest since 2007 (Dataloft, HMRC). An estimated one in every 20 properties has changed hands across the Isle of Wight, Dorset, Hampshire and Wiltshire in the past year. The Test Valley and Swindon are currently the most active housing markets in the region.

A perfect storm

Economic headwinds are gaining momentum. Expectations of global and UK economic growth have been pared back, while consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since records began in 1974. Optimism is weaker than during the global financial crisis, Brexit or Covid-19 (GfK). The Covid recovery, war in Ukraine and rising energy and food prices, alongside a strong labour market and low unemployment, have created a perfect storm. Inflation is pushing a 40-year high. Thanks to fixed-rate mortgages, many households are cushioned from the impact of the latest base rate rise, but day-to-day budgets are increasingly feeling the squeeze.

Double-digit property price growth remains evident in many localities in the Southern region. Annual price growth in the South East and the South West is currently stronger than it was a year ago (ONS, UK HPI). Across the region there is less than two months of available stock left to sell, down by almost half on the historical norm.

Slow gear change

For many, the question is when, not if, the property market will start to moderate. However, any gear change is liable to be slow and steady, and not an emergency brake as was the case in the global financial crisis of 2008. Forecasters still anticipate positive price growth over the course of the year. Market fundamentals remain strong. A strong desire to move remains in the minds of many and there is a shortage of properties, compounded by data indicating that new home completions remain below pre-Covid levels and short of the government’s 300,000 homes target.

Properties for sale in the Southern region

Weymouth, Dorset, 5 bedrooms

This impressive property built circa late 1990s and offers approximately 2300 sq. ft of accommodation and situated within a much sought-after area in Weymouth, it is approached via a generous driveway. 

Chippenham, Wiltshire, 5 bedrooms

Dairy Cottage is a versatile and spacious detached family home located within the popular village of Hullavington. Individually designed and built in the early 2000s by a local builder, the property is constructed of attractive Farmington natural stone with a high specification finish including underflooring heating throughout the ground floor beneath Indian slate tiling. 

Fordingbridge, Hampshire, 4 bedrooms

This wonderful New Forest Cottage overlooks Hyde Common in Fordingbridge and offers direct forest access. The extended accommodation approaches 2,000 sq. ft. and comprises a superb open-plan dining room/living room with vaulted ceiling. Outside, the established gardens, of 0.33 acre, also house a garage with an adjoining workshop and stables.

Contact us

As property prices and demand continue to rise, sell your property with experts in the property industry this spring. Contact your local Guild Member today.